Paper info

Forecasting network transformation: a Delphi-based scenario approach

Per Carlborg, Nina Hasche and Johan Kask

The paper was published at the 35th IMP-conference in Paris, France in 2019.

As the energy market transforms – from large scale, centralized systems to smaller, agile networks with many actors and small-scale producers – the interest from both society and business to forecast and understand future scenarios increase. By using Delphi panel data with experts from industry, academia and government, the current study presents a future scenario for the Swedish electric utility market and relates it to network transformation. Our findings reflect a range of different views of the future of electricity utilities with different opinions from the expert panel when it comes to technological development, consumer behaviour, political ambitions and investment. One thing that unites the experts is the view of how the traditional electric utility’s business network will be further integrated and connected into other systems through internet of things and digitalization. The study shows how network transformation can be forecasted by using a Delphi expert panel in combination with trend data for relevant parameters.